ISML Aquamarine Period 2012: Day 2 Fantasy/Prediction

With a now edited set of scoring with hopefully fewer deviances than previously, the matches provided today seem to be a bit easier to predict. Then again, because there were so many intra-series matches provided (I think the most in one day, but it makes sense given for format of this year’s tournament), there may still be some issues in terms of who is really the better of the two. In any case, again, there are way too many matches to discuss every single one, so I am mostly going to list matches that I believe are important or can go either way as well as my interpretation of the exhibition matches.

Nova provides us some interesting matches to follow up on. Some matches in particular to watch:

Arena 4: Once again, Homura needs to step up to the plate if she wants to get through ISML with nothing to worry about. Fear Kubrick is a decent strength gague as well, but Shimada provided a better view on how Homura will look like in the future matches to come. Fear does not appear to be a strong player from by perspective, but Homura usually shows her strength only when she needs/wants to (similar to last year’s Charlotte?). Most likely, this is going to be Homura’s win, but by how much is the question.

Arena 5: Intra-series matches are interesting in that they sometimes do not follow statistics well. I am a bit interested in how this match is going to fare. However, it appears as though Hasegawa Kobato will win most likely due to her Hanazawa Kana factor. Still, I will not be surprised if Mikazuki Yozora wins, but I do not see that happening as of yet.

Arena 12: I think this is a good match to see just how far Haqua du Lot Herminium. Haqua manages to defeat Ayase, but Ayase may have been weakened after her previous performance. Nakamura Yuri is a different playing field to cover backed up by a strong AB! force. While Yuri looks to be the victor here, if Haqua can create a close game from this one, she may be a character one would not wish to go up against for the weaker previous ISML participants.

Arena 15: Kirishima Shōko and Himeji Mizuki seem so close in terms of strength that I do not know who is the more favorable one here. It does not help that both of them are from the same series, but something like the previous Kyou vs. Nagisa match may occur here. Because this is their first time participating, it is albeit a bit more difficult to figure out even with a day of data. I think Shouko has a slight edge on this one.

Arena 16: This match is interesting in that I technically still do not know how strong Kanzaki H. Aria. I am expecting her to be a power to be reckoned with as she is a member of the Kugimiya Knights. Then again, both Aria and Konoe Subaru did advance to Regular Season through Preliminary II, so Subaru is no pushover. I still think Aria is going to win here.

Arena 18: Shiomiya Shiori and Irisviel von Einzbern had a bad start coming here, but they can easily turn this match around to make it a more competitive game. The question now comes as which of these girls will continue to hold a smile on their face. Shiori appears to be the strongest of the Kaminomi representatives with a bit of Hanazawa Kana flavor in her plate. Irisviel still has her series currently airing, so she may get some power from her show, but how much of it is she having. If Irisivel loses here, her level of strength may be weaker than I have originally thought of.

While Stella does not provide as much excitement as Nova, there are still some matches that I believe are noteworthy to pay attention to:

Arena 28: I think this is good strength indicator to see where Oshino Shinobu is in terms of power. Furukawa Nagisa is mostly found slightly above the middle of the of the statistic graphs every year, so Clannad still has its staying power, but for how long remains the question. Shinobu defeated Yami with room to spare, but Nagisa may be a trickier situation for her to follow. I think Shinobu has what it takes to beat her down, but I would not be surprised if Nagisa comes out as the victor.

Arena 31: Now, exactly how strong is Tōsaka Rin? While Fate/Zero has her as a side character with sporadic appearances and one episode dedicated to her, this somehow revived everyone’s love for Rin enough to make it to the Preliminaries in the first stage. So, where exactly does she fare now? Rin can easily defeat Index at any time, but I do not recall seeing her defeat Fujibayashi Kyō as of late. If Rin gained the same amount of remembrance boost as Illyasviel, but Rin may have what it takes to finally defeat Kyou, to which I think will happen.

Arena 34: If this were two years ago, Holo would have had this in the bag, Last year, she was lucky enough to defeat her before her sudden drop in power. It still is a mystery how someone of Holo’s status, a former Top 16 competitor as well as a KBM champion disappear like that. It is not like her series is that old compared to some of the veteran fighters. If Holo is still as weak as she is, C.C. would have no trouble finally overcoming her. Here is me hoping that Holo does make it through.

Today’s exhibition matches features characters where I know all eight of the participants, and both provide interesting fights in their own right.

Arena 19: Again, probably the most interesting match of this day. The Araragi sisters missed the cutoff to be in the preliminaries by a mere few votes. Seeing how well Shinobu has done, I regret not voting for either of them and having them participate here. They could have been a dominating force to be reckoned with. But, are they stronger that the Hirasawa sisters? Yui and Ui are no pushovers when it comes to these types of matches, to it really depends on how strong the Araragi sisters are while they are still fresh in one’s memory. This would be a fun watch. I hope the Araragi sisters redeem themselves here and obtain the victory.

Arena 38: The match itself is interesting in its own right. I would not really consider Kōsaka Kyōsuke and Aragaki Ayase compatible given their love/hate relationship, and while Orimura Ichika and Laura Bodewig are a good pair, but it is only one sided given how dense Ichika is. While Ayase is more popular than Laura without question, I am more interested to see how the men are going to affect this match. I have this odd premonition that Ichika could be the deciding factor to see how this match would be. In the end, I think Kōsaka Kyōsuke and Aragaki Ayase are going to be the victors by the end of this one.

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